| Pakistan's Future Hanging in Balance. |
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Pakistan has just celebrated its 60th birthday. After several tumultuous
decades Pakistan Now has gained a certain stature in the community of nations for two obvious reasons. One- that it is the only Muslim country with nuclear arsenal. Second- that it is located in a very strategic location. It is bordering Afghanistan, Iran, India and China. The break up of USSR has added tremendously to its importance by becoming the gateway to most of these newly emerged landlocked countries to the Hot waters of Indian Ocean.
At the moment General President Pervaiz Musharraf is at the helm of affairs in Pakistan who associated himself with the West in the aftermath of September 11th tragedy.
I do not think Musharraf had much of a choice there and he did exactly what once Philippines foreign minister said “ Enjoy the rape if it is inevitable” A crude reality.
He is fighting the Western war on his own turf, guising it as a war against extremism and Talibanization. There is hardly any buyer for it in the country or, for that matter, in the entire Muslim world.
The tribal areas of Pakistan and around had resiliently been independent and never accepted the subjugation of any invader. These people are known as Pakhtoon, but more accurately Afghanis as the whole area which is sprung in Afghanistan and Pakistan had historically been known as Afghniya or Afghanistan. These people had been moving back and forth as the border virtually never existed for them.
The British tried to tame them but had to run for their life and prestige.
Then came the Russians who were grossly humiliated and ended up even with disintegration of their own country. Now it is the turn of the West, primarily USA. The military Junta of Coalition-of-Few has come to grasp this fact, confronting both in Iraq and Afghanistan, but is reluctant to accept, having lost the war long ago, publicly to avoid the humiliation at home and acceptance of loss of credibility internationally.
This war is most crucial to Pakistan than any other country in the region or in the western hemisphere. This war could be disastrous for Pakistan if the same course is traversed. Policy of “Appeasement of the West” need scrutiny and reformation together with the prioritization of the National Interest.
Next few months are of extreme significance for Pakistan. A wrong move on the part of the incumbent administration OR the immature, self-serving, boot licking, ignorant of global dynamics politicians could result in Pakistan being lost in the obscurity of an “insignificant rascal multitued nation of the third world”. Given the present habitual horse trading, mud slinging, Deportation & Welcome drama and Supreme court dragged into the fray ( who seems, at times, embarked on judicial activism) unfortunately are indicative of a grave scenario looming on the horizon. Allegedly Most corrupt politicians such as Benazir, Nawaz and majority of others, regardless of their being in opposition or government, are enjoying the patriarchal support and would be at the helm of the affairs in one form or the other. Politics in Pakistan revolves around personalities rather than ideologies or the manifesto of a party. The change in personality could change the vote bank drastical ly. Therefore only God knows who stands where and for what?
The situation in the long term however, seems promising and hopeful when one looks at the growing level of awareness among the people of the national interest, social, civic, religious responsibilities driven by patriotic zeal. The irony however is that it has not yet reached a level where it could make a difference on the political landscape of the country.
There is a growing awareness of defending/preserving the national sovereignty and Integrity. Pakistani nation has already embarked on the road to a developed society. It is producing quite a few intellectuals, scholars who are equipped with both, secular and religious knowledge and can understand, analyze and interpret the situation much more accurately and elaborately than they had ever been able in its entire history. The electronic Media is playing a very powerful role in educating and creating tremendous awareness in the country. The credit for freedom and liberalization of electronic media admittedly goes to the present administration.
If the process is not derailed and continued to gather momentum the development of Pakistan as a “Model Modern Muslim Society”; provided the political maturity, continuity of well defined and thought out policies and stability keeps pace in simultaneous development, is guaranteed.
Although I would not like to throw my unqualified support for Musharraf but I can safely say that this time Pakistan stumbled on an open minded liberal patriot, who wants to leave his legacy as The first Military man who put the country on the right tracks leading to a developed State. My conclusion, along with several other factors, is also reflective of his being inspired by Turkish Modernist, Kamal-Ata-Turk. (Although his modernity was at the cost and to the detriment of the Religion).
I do not know if one can qualify Turkish experiment or, for that matter, the Egyptian experiment of Pan-Arabism of Jamal-Abdul-Nasser a success in any sense?
The most compelling reason for Pakistani administration to continue with the present policy is the fear of being run-over by the herd of Western coalition lead by USA.
The threat was enunciated by the Bush administration as “ We would push you back to the stone age if not sided with us” The major point of concern for Pakistan is the safety of its nuclear power facilities given the Western and Israeli opposition and their nexus with next door teeth grinding menacing India. Indian animosity toward Pakistan is very real given the three wars it had fought with Pakistan. India’s dilemma is that it is a huge poverty ridden country with over a billion population facing a dearth of resources to feed them and yet is ambitious to play the role of regional power. It had long been pushing around the smaller countries in the region and had even annexed princely states of Bhutan and Heyderabad Deccan. Its hands are full of secessionist movements
With a simmering dispute of Kashmir. This dispute is bleeding wound of India as half a million men military is deployed only in Kashmir. A lunatic drain on scare resources.
Given the support India would not hesitate to attack Pakistan for its own reasons and to accommodate the western designs. Pakistani foreign Minister, despite Non-Recognition of Israel and No-diplomatic relations, met with the Israeli foreign Minister in Turkey elaborating Pakistan’s position to stay clear of any violent shift in the trio’s attitude.
The tribal areas are the most crucial and consequential territory for the future of Pakistan. Pakistani administration can not afford to keep slaughtering its own subjects just to ward off the threat of the West or to keep US planes from breaching its sovereignty. Recently US planes attacked a suspect site in Waziristan killing around 100 people which Pakistani administrations owned, refuting that the attack had been carried out by US. US media, later gave the actual account of the attack which caused lot of humiliation and tremendous credibility problem for Pakistani administration.
The tribal areas are full of natural resources most of which are yet untapped. Secondly, as already mentioned, it is gateway to Newly independent states and Afghanistan.
The energy/natural resources of these States along with that of Pakistan are of extreme significance to the West. U.S therefore is investing heavily in the tribal areas of Pakistan, as a long term strategic planning, for the future access and control of these resources. China also having a stake in that region, for the similar reasons, has helped massively building the strategic Gwader Port; hence commanding a virtual control of it. Pakistan prudently and willingly accepted the Chinese role as a counterbalance measure.
Pakistan is also building a Natural-gas pipe line from Iran. to meet its energy requirements, despite US objection. Pakistan, as opposed to India, is being denied the nuclear energy technology, equipment. Energy extraction from coal technology is rather being proposed--what a ridiculous rationale on the part of the west?
Pakistan has only one heavy weight dependable ally--China, who has her own limitations and would not be able to take part in any armed conflict which may be unleashed by the West or India, but is still a counterbalancing factor of certain degree. Pakistani authorities therefore have to be extremely prudent and cautious as they have a very thin line to walk.
In my opinion Pakistan should gradually shift her priorities, as it has already started doing upto certain extent under the incumbent leadership, by developing its economy, military capabilities and developing the public, social and civic consciousness. It is also reaching out to many nations exploring new markets, developing diplomatic relations, commerce and trade and also the transfer of technology. It is also hawkishly keeping the Indians at bay by matching, at times even outclassing, the arsenal development superior in quality than that of India.
Pakistan needs to synchronize its de-affiliation and non-reliance process with that of the declining influence of the West in general and US in Particular. Pakistan should gradually exhibit more independence and importance of its own National interests should be articulated more emphatically. The most significant point to be brought home is that, At present time West needs Pakistan as much as Pakistan need the West or the US; in its ideological and strategic war against terrorism. Pakistan is indispensable for the West.
Pakistan should, however immediately stop the operations in tribal areas because it could devastate and cripple the economy and military capabilities. There is even a possibility of mutiny within the military if it continues. If a civil war ensues it would not only be disastrous for Pakistan but would also be the last nail in the coffin of the western interests beings pursued world wide. This will strengthen Taliban and all anti-American forces all over the world.
President, as a first step, should stop entertaining third ranked US officials. The intellectual think tank organizations should be helped sprout and emasculated in the country. Media and Judiciary should be strengthened and provided all the tools to have their credibility and presence felt across the globe. Strong Media is a very powerful tool in present times to bring a certain point of view home. Institution building should be given a priority. Education should be dealt with on emergency footing making sure, its highest possible standard, uniformity and access to all. Infrastructure and power-plants should also be built on the same footings on internationally accepted standards.
Media should be encouraged, and given protection, to dissect the old-hog politicians about their educational achievements, wealth accumulation, corruption scandals and political ideologies etc.
The tribal lords should be deprived of the levies and any other kind of funding. A
Second-fiddle indigenous parallel system should be introduced/strengthened to reduce the influence and grip on the uneducated masses living in their territories.
Agrarian reforms should be done gradually with the consultation of the experts to utilize the land for maximum yield.
This is the only time tough, nationalistic decisions could be made and pursued as a traditional politician would neither have the guts, capacity nor the incentive to do any of these.
Few more suggestions, if any one from the present administration in Pakistan stumbles on this piece, could be pondered upon.
1) Induct as many as possible educated young men into the politics.
2) Bring more western educated Patriotic Pakistanis into the governance who would understand the western psyche and language to deal with them effectively.
3) Capitalism should not be pursued in the western fashion but tailored to suit a Muslim society, restricting its unquenchable appetite for profiteering and cruelty, with Islamic principles, thereby making it pro-people.
4) Make Basic religious education compulsory in all public and private schools of the country.
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